International Coffee Prices, Exchange Rates, and Coffee Export Volume in Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32939/jey69z33Keywords:
Coffee Exports, International Coffee Prices, Exchange Rate, Time-Series Analysis, Agricultural TradeAbstract
Purpose: This study examines the development of international coffee prices, the rupiah exchange rate, and coffee export volume in Indonesia. It also investigates the effects of international coffee prices and the rupiah exchange rate on Indonesia’s coffee export volume.
Design/Methodology/Approach: This study employs a quantitative approach using secondary time-series data covering the period from 1995 to 2024. The data were obtained from the Central Statistics Agency of Indonesia (BPS), the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Indonesia, and the World Bank. The data were analyzed using multiple linear regression, supported by classical assumption tests and partial and simultaneous significance tests.
Findings: The findings indicate that international coffee prices and the rupiah exchange rate jointly influence Indonesia’s coffee export volume. However, their individual effects differ. The rupiah exchange rate has a significant effect on coffee export volume, whereas international coffee prices show a negative but statistically insignificant effect. These findings suggest that exchange rate movements play an important role in shaping Indonesia’s coffee export performance, while the effect of international coffee prices may depend on other economic and structural factors.
Research Implications: The findings highlight the importance of exchange rate conditions for Indonesia’s coffee export performance. Policy efforts should therefore consider exchange rate stability alongside measures to strengthen the competitiveness of the coffee industry through productivity improvement, quality enhancement, market diversification, and value-added development.
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